‘Saddam Will Use Everything Within His Reach’
October 10, 2002 

Workers at a manufacturing plant outside of Baghdad. The facility has been singled out as one that might be part of Iraqi efforts to build weapons of mass destruction
Iraq’s former head of military intelligence assesses the chances of a military coup in Baghdad—and warns that, if cornered, the dictator will use his weapons of mass destruction

Wafiq al-Samarrai knows many of Saddam Hussein’s secrets. As director of Iraqi military intelligence during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, the general was close to the dictator until defecting eight years ago.

WHEN HE LEFT, Sammarai brought with him important inside knowledge about the army as well as valuable information about Saddam’s plans to hide Scud missiles. 

        Sammarai now lives in exile in England, where he is a key player in the Iraqi opposition movement. Earlier this year, he was one of at least three exiled former generals who held talks with U.S. State Department and CIA officials about a post-Saddam Iraqi military. Next month, he will make his first visit to Washington for further meetings with the Bush administration. 
        Sammarai spoke to NEWSWEEK’s Samir Zedan about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and his fears that an American attack could prompt Saddam to turn his country into an ungovernable wasteland. Excerpts: 

Were you close to Saddam Hussein? 

Wafiq al-Samarrai: I know him, he was close to me. I met him often depending on conditions at the time. 
       
       How is the Iraqi Army likely to react if the United States attacks Iraq? 
       The Iraqi Army definitely does not support Saddam Hussein. But I cannot say it supports the other side. The position of the army depends on the conditions prevailing during the war. There is a chance it would turn against the regime, but I cannot say when that might happen. If the Iraqi senior officers believed that they would play a major part in a future government, this would speed up the process against the regime. But if they believed that they would be prisoners of war, arrested, held accountable or rejected—this would make it very difficult to revolt against the regime. [The United States] needs to identify by name those who are wanted. It should not be left vague. 

Wafiq al-Samarrai: 
There should be a list of names such as Saddam, Ali Hassan al-Majid [Saddam’s cousin, notorious for ordering the gassing of Kurds in 1988], [Deputy Premier] Tariq Aziz and so on.…

What could the army be doing now? 
       The ideal situation is that the Iraqi army moves to seize power before the start of the war. That is the best choice. But I do not believe such a thing might happen. If the U.S. wants to go on with the war plan, there will be a war. I hardly believe that Saddam would give in to the U.S. and give up [his] weapons of mass destruction. 
       
Is the Iraqi Army capable of toppling Saddam? 
       The main power of Saddam relies on two factors: the weapons of mass destruction and the tactics of surprise. He would use human shields to divert air raids. He did it [during U.S. airstrikes] in 1998, when he brought thousands of people and put them in the presidential palaces and important targets. He would opt to do unpredictable and uncalculated things. Blowing up the oil fields in Basra and Karkuk would be one of the surprises. You can draw your own conclusions about what other options Saddam has.
       
Was it a mistake for President George W. Bush to turn this into a personal issue against Saddam? 
       [Bush’s statements] against Saddam Hussein gave him an important chance to prepare his regime and his army for the war. He prepared the army, the equipment, the materiel. The weapons and the plans are ready.
       
How do ordinary Iraqis feel about the prospect of American troops in Iraq? 
       If they got rid of Saddam with minimum damage, they would definitely look at it positively. But if the casualties are high it would be negative. Do you expect the people to love you when a lot of civilians are killed? 

Would it be easy to get rid of Saddam Hussein with minimum loss of life? 
       Only if they targeted him personally. I cannot go into such details because it is illegal. 
        
What about the Saddam look-alikes said to be used as decoys?
       I do not believe in the existence of people looking like Saddam. During my stay in Iraq I did not see one person who looked like him. I think [the impersonator talk] is big propaganda. Maybe there is one [look-alike,] but there is much propaganda about this issue.
       
What is the current condition of the Iraqi army?
       If the Iraqi army believed in Saddam Hussein and his regime its resistance would be very fierce and the U.S. task would be very difficult. [But] the army will believe the battle is already lost if the U.S. Army says its target is to topple Saddam. 
        
Does Iraq still have the capacity to launch missiles armed with weapons of mass destruction? 
       In 1990, the Iraqi Army was in a much better position than today. But they still have missiles and weapons of mass destruction. Of course, these missiles can reach Israel. I believe [Saddam] will attack Israel. The only question is whether Arrow and Patriot missiles would be able to shoot down [Iraqi] missiles before they reach their destination. During the [1991] gulf war, [the anti-missile defenses] failed. If they fail now, I believe the missiles would reach Tel Aviv.
        Saddam will use the weapons of mass destruction. If his life is threatened he will use everything within his reach. I believe the biological weapons are more dangerous than chemical weapons because they cause more death. The spread of diseases is faster and the measures to contain it are difficult. If he could launch the missiles, he undoubtedly would do it. I believe the Americans will try to prevent him from doing so by occupying the area west of the Euphrates River.
       
Are there increased contacts between the exiled opposition and anti-Saddam officers inside Iraq? 
       I can neither confirm or deny that officers under my command are in contact with me. They can contact others in the opposition as well. We do not go into details because the opposition in exile is not one unit. 
       
Why can’t the internal Iraqi opposition get rid of Saddam? 
       Only the Iraqi Army can get rid of him. But his security measures are very strong. 
       
If the Americans sent a message to assure the Iraqi officers that they would not target them, would they topple Saddam without the United States having to go to war?
       This is very difficult for me to answer because Iraq is my country. I am not a foreign expert who talks about this matter easily. If I say the Iraqi Army would not move against Saddam unless Iraq is attacked from the outside, then a large number of the Iraqi people would be upset with me. And if I say the army will move without the U.S. attacks, the people will say I do not want this regime to be removed.
       
Will the return of United Nations arms inspectors be able to prevent a war? 
       It will be very difficult for the inspectors to find anything. I believe it is impossible that Saddam will give them anything. 

Do you believe the Bush administration when it says it wants to create a democratic system in Iraq. Will it be able to do so?
       I believe if a group of military persons seize power, the U.S. will deal with them as it dealt with [President Pervez] Musharraf in Pakistan. The U.S. wants the regime to be changed and human rights observed, but I do not believe it wants a free democratic system. The evidence of that was when [the Bush administration] said it would accept any person who could get rid of Saddam and also said it would not dictate conditions.
       
If Saddam is ousted, would Iraq need another strong government to stop the country splitting apart? 
       During the first few years, there would be a need for control that secures the unity of the country—whether by the Iraqi Army or the U.S. The Iraqi army would lose its power once the Americans are inside Iraq. In such a situation, the U.S. should take control.