December 18 — Captive al-Quaida told this Afghan commander that Osama bin Laden shaved his beard and said good-bye to his men 13 days ago. NBC’s Jim Avila reports.

“THOSE BORDERS are porous, and we are putting a great deal of pressure on the Taliban and the al-Qaida forces in Afghanistan, which is causing them to move and flee and run and hide,” Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said. 
       Pakistan’s president, Pervez Musharraf, has told the United States his army will hunt bin Laden from the air and on the ground. If he is turned over to the United States, experts doubt that it will be alive.
  “We’re more likely to see him turned over to us in a body bag than an alive Osama bin laden, because he would be able to talk about his prior relationship with the Pakistanis and with the Saudis,” said Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution. 

Bin Laden has a close relationship with Pakistan and its people, despite government denials.
       “The great majority of Pakistanis, whether they are in the tribal belt or outside it, do not sympathize with what he’s done and what he stands for, and I don’t think that that should be a problem,” Zamir Akram of the Pakistan Embassy said. 
       But, at crossings and along remote smuggling routes, the Taliban and bin Laden can try to hide among Pashtun tribesmen.
       U.S. officials fear bin Laden could cross the border and travel by river to Karachi. With its population of 15 million, he could disappear and move on to Africa or the Arabian Peninsula.
 
And, despite Pakistan’s increased border patrols, the smuggling works both ways. As recently as October, U.S. intelligence discovered two arms shipments from Pakistan into Afghanistan. That would be impossible, experts say, without official permission on some level.

“I think there has been not only smuggling of arms, there have been people who crossed over — because, remember, emotionally many people in Pakistan, particularly in the Pashtun areas, were linked with the Taliban,” said Akbar Ahmed of American University.
 
REPORTED AL-QAIDA ESCAPES
       In Jalalabad, the eastern alliance’s governing council, or shura, met Friday to discuss the reported escape of al-Qaida officials and rebuked two senior tribal leaders who some shura members accuse of helping al-Qaida fighters flee, according to a top official who attended the meeting. The official asked not to be identified for fear of retribution. 

He said hundreds of al-Qaida family members escaped, and top al-Qaida commanders may have been among them.  Sorhab Qadri, an intelligence officer in one of the three militias that make up the shura’s fighting force, also reported escapes — possibly even including bin Laden himself.
 
“There is no question that some members of the shura helped al-Qaida, I’m just not sure exactly who,” said Qadri, who works for Hazrat Ali, a veteran anti-Taliban militia commander and shura member.

FLEEING TO PAKISTAN 
Hundreds of Taliban fighters have already fled to Pakistan. In southern Kandahar, where Taliban rule collapsed on Dec. 7, the provincial intelligence chief said many top Taliban leaders had fled to Pakistan and accused Pakistani officials of sheltering them.

 “I know the authorities and institutions that are supporting them. I know where they are staying and who is giving refuge to them,” said Haji Gulalai, intelligence chief for Gov. Gul Agha. He said some al-Qaida members in the area also fled to Pakistan.

The Taliban leaders who Gulalai listed included much of the Islamic militia’s Cabinet, including Nooruddin Turabi — the one-eyed, one-legged justice minister who imposed some of the Taliban’s harshest edicts — and Syed Tayyab Agha, spokesman for Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammed Omar.

If true, their flight would mean that Omar, who Gulalai said is hiding in the mountains of south-central Afghanistan, is isolated with few of his lieutenants by his side. 

Pakistan, a U.S. ally that has increased security along its 1,340-mile border with Afghanistan, vehemently denied reports that it had aided and abetted escapees. In Islamabad, the Pakistani capital, Foreign Ministry spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan called the accusations “utter nonsense” fabricated to slander his country.

“We have deployed additional security all along the border, including, for the first time, military troops,” he said. “We are looking for each and every one who is crossing the border illegally. As far as we are concerned, the border is completely sealed.”

James F. Dobbins, the top U.S. envoy to Afghanistan, said he discussed the matter with Pakistani officials in Islamabad and they “reaffirmed their commitment to us in regard to strict border controls.”

“I don’t think it’s possible to prevent individuals from crossing the border,” Dobbins said in Islamabad. “I think it is possible once they’ve done so to apprehend them over time and then to ensure that they’re dealt with appropriately.”

In any case, U.S. experts believe the Taliban who have fled to Pakistan are so battered they can no longer regroup.